The Middle East has emerged as the latest flashpoint disrupting the global aviation network. Airlines are being forced to reroute or cancel flights for safety reasons, resulting in significant losses of both time and cost.
A snapshot from FlightRadar24 shows that hardly any aircraft are flying through the airspace of conflict-affected countries such as Iran and Israel. Image: FlightRadar24
Experts note that even at 12,000 meters above ground, passengers are directly affected by upheavals on the ground. International geopolitics has long been inseparable from aviation—particularly in the skies.
After years of managing crisis after crisis—from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to India-Pakistan tensions—airlines appear to have learned how to “live with the flood.”
“Airspace closures have become a daily reality. This is virtually the new normal,” said Brendan Sobie, an aviation analyst based in Singapore.
According to Tony Stanton, a consultant at Strategic Air (Australia), airlines are under immense pressure to operate in such a complex geopolitical environment. Short-haul routes across Central Asia and the Middle East, such as to Dubai or Doha, have been the hardest hit. These flights previously crossed Iranian airspace for more than half their journey. Now, many must divert through Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey—lengthening flight times and adding operational risks.
Meanwhile, Russian airspace remains open but is used primarily by Chinese carriers such as Air China, Xiamen Air, or Cathay Pacific. China-Europe routes must loop through the Baltic Sea near St. Petersburg, as Russian airspace bordering Ukraine has been completely closed since 2022, when the war began.
Detours have sharply increased both flight time and operating costs. Some routes, such as London–Hong Kong, now take up to two additional hours to avoid Iranian and Israeli skies, burning thousands of extra dollars in fuel. A Boeing 777 alone can consume as much as USD 7,000 per hour of flight.
Beyond fuel, airlines face higher crew costs, additional overflight fees, and lost revenue from cancellations and delays. Raising ticket prices to offset these costs is difficult, since most passengers book weeks or even months in advance.
FlightRadar24, the global flight tracking platform, shows aircraft traffic being funneled into increasingly narrow corridors, as the skies over Israel, Iraq, Iran, and Ukraine remain largely closed. One such narrow corridor runs just south of these conflict zones.
Experts warn that this not only increases the burden on air traffic controllers—who must manage more flights in tighter airspace—but also raises airlines’ costs. Adjusting altitudes, shifting departure times, and spacing out flights more efficiently often require paying steep premiums for peak-time takeoff and landing slots at major airports.
Analysts further caution that record-high passenger numbers and aircraft volumes are making each disruption harder to manage. “In Central Asia alone, flight traffic has already tripled compared to just a few years ago,” Sobie said.
The industry still remembers the tragedy of July 2014, when Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine. The Boeing 777, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was destroyed, killing all 298 people on board.
That disaster remains a grim reminder for the aviation sector whenever it considers flying over conflict zones.
What is more worrying is that no one knows how long these conflicts will last. The war in Ukraine, now entering its third year, has yet to allow airlines to restore many of their former routes.
Photo: Passengers push their luggage into the waiting area after their flights were delayed or canceled at Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, Lebanon, June 13. Image: EPA-EFE
Escalating conflicts are not only straining airlines but also passengers. Amid Middle Eastern tensions, travel agencies in the UAE have reported surging demand from travelers—particularly those from Jordan, Lebanon, and Iran—seeking to extend their stay in the country to avoid the dangers and uncertainty of returning home.
Bharath Aidasani, CEO of Pluto Travels, said that in recent days his office phones have been ringing nonstop from morning until night. Clients want to cancel or postpone flights to various Middle Eastern countries. He has received numerous calls from travelers fearful of going back to their homelands, asking for visa extensions or ways to legally remain in or re-enter the UAE.
According to multiple agencies, most of those reaching out initially entered the UAE on short-term tourist visas but now wish to stay longer due to airspace closures, disrupted flights, and security concerns in their home countries.
In the midst of escalating instability and chaotic air traffic, the UAE has become a temporary refuge for thousands of tourists and residents from across the Middle East.
